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At the start of this year’s NCAA tournament, might anybody have forecasted this would be the Final 4 that we were to get? None of the leading seed made it to Houston, while one of the 1st 4 – really meaning one of the last four picked for the tournament whatsoever – has made it. It would be an unanticipated if just one bracket throughout the country was still intact after this last weekend.



Who might have forecasted that one of the national semifinals games would be played between the Bulldogs and the VCU Rams? Handful of enough folks supposed Butler to make it back into the Sweet Sixteen, not to mention the Final 4. And no one really supposed VCU to make their incredible run in the tournament, beating out No. 1 seed Kansas in route.

So is this year just random chance, or is the era of being able to guess comparatively accurate national championships arriving to an end? In essence, the more compact schools are getting quality players, and those players stick around for longer than the minimum amount of time needed to make a name for themselves before declaring for pro basketball Draft.

Programs like Butler and VCU can attract quality players, even if they do not get the pretty top high school players in the nation. The big names like Kansas and Ohio State can acquire the top of the top, but then those players simply stay in college for a year or two at the most. In the meantime, the more compact schools take edge and create their players for 3-4 years.

So the upsets we are seeing this year aren’t flukes. They reflect the changing perception of the significance of competing college ball. None of the leading seeds lasted long enough to make it to Houston’s semifinal round. Duke is gone, Kansas is gone, the broadly favored Ohio State is gone. Butler, VUC, Kentucky, and Uconn make up simply the third Final 4 lacking a No. 1 seed since 1979.

The big conferences were humiliated out of the tournament this year. The Big East and Big Ten got a combined 18 bids this year, and just one team made it even as far as the Elite Eight – Connecticut. Look for the more compact conferences and more compact programs to start getting more tournament bids in the future. And watch for them to keep winning provided that the “elite” schools recruit skill at the expense of regularity.


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